TURKEY’S ROAD TO EU MEMBERSHIP: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Abstract

The commencement of the official relations between the European Union and
Turkey dates back to 31 July 1959, when Turkey applied for association following the establishment of the European Economic Community. The relations
were shaped in accordance with the provisions of Ankara Agreement signed in
1963. As stated in article 28 of the Ankara Agreement, the road to full membership was open, based on Turkey's capacity to fulfill its obligations. The Customs Union, which was envisaged as the final period of the Association, took
effect on 1 January 1996 and was perceived in big business circles as a cureall. On the other hand, small and medium sized companies have been critical
of this process. With the Customs Union, Turkey had already become part of
the European internal market and was required to adopt large parts of the
acquis regardless of the membership process. The 1999 Helsinki Summit
marked a turning point in Turkey-EU relations, followed by a positive atmosphere till the accession negotiations started in 2005. As Turkey started negotiations, conditionality rather than incentives were perceived to dominate the
negotiation process. The absorption capacity of the Union was also an issue,
which basically meant that Turkish accession has the risk of overburdening
the EU in budgetary, political and/or institutional terms. Although the
progress in accession negotiations constitutes an important anchor for the
implementation of political reforms, it was only the economic perspective of
Turkish accession which has been looked upon more favourably, while the rest
became intertwined with the questions of identity and the future of Europe, a
larger question. Turkey's road to EU membership is distinct from the previous
enlargements, due to the combined impact of population, size, geographical
location, economics and energy security. Given these features, despite the deep
impact of the current global crisis on the economies of some member states,
Turkey continues to be a functioning market economy in line with the
Copenhagen criteria. The paper tries to assess and shed an insight into
Turkey's economic convergence and argues that Turkey's EU membership is a
challenging but a “win-win” case.